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The following was written by an Agent from CAA to his clients. He
described the situation succinctly.
"I know a lot of your are getting antsy to get out more, and frankly many of
you are in a tight financial pinch; as such, I wanted to describe to you all
the current climate in LA and the factors influencing the current
environment.
-SAG STALEMATE: Since the SAG contract expired on June 30, 2008, there have
been few to no STUDIO feature films (this does not include companies such as
Lionsgate and the Weinstein Company who are not in AMPTP and as such have
completion agreements). Some analysts say there are up to 200 feature films
on hold. Around September, we started to see a mass movement of film actors
to TV projects. Many of my "name" actors have done one-day guest stars (this
is very typical right now), and we are seeing a number of Guest Star level
actors doing CO-STAR roles. Remember from November of 2007 to March of 2008,
due to the Writer's Strike, again there were no feature films shot. So for
the film actor, there has only been 4 months of work in the last 17 months.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Due to the lack of studio feature film production, BOTH
film and TV actors are now competing for a limited number of jobs in the
episodic and pilot environments.
-PILOT SEASON: During the Writer's Strike of 2007-2008, Studios adapted and
used the void to eliminate pilot season as we know it. Gone are the days of
hundreds of pilots. In fact, this year, there are only 67 pilots to have
registered for production - of which only about 35 have been green lit for
production.
http://www.variety. com/article/VR1118000479.html?categoryid=3284&cs=1&query=pilots+casting+2009
http://www.variety. com/article/VR1118000479.html?categoryid=3284&cs=1&query=pilots+casting+2009
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(Continued from top)
And this year, due again to a sagging economy, studios and networks believe
that by committing named stars to their projects, they will receive more
money from this year's up-fronts from ad agencies. They are banking on star
power to leverage better buys at the all important UPFRONTS. So, stars and
pop-stars like Richard Dreyfuss, Chevy Chase, Brittany Snow, Elle McPherson,
Rebecca Romijn, Ashley Simpson, Scott Caan, Skeet Ulrich, and roven TV
talents like Kelsey Grammar, Eric McCormick, John McGinley, Joel McHale,
Jenna Elfman, Donald Faison, Maura Tierney, Peter Krauss, Craig T. Nelson,
Dax Shepherd, etc.... You do the math, 37 pilots... top stars being
sought...
-TV: While TV has been steady, again due to the conflagration of film and
named actors doing Guest Starring roles, we have seen a horrible trickle
down. Many Guest Stars are now doing Co-stars and Co-stars/Developmen tal
Actors (those with less than 5 primetime credits) frankly are not getting
seen much. One CD recently told me that she had over 25 women who would be
considered 'working actors' going for a co-star role. BOTTOM LINE: Again,
due to the abundance of name and working actors, many less-developed actors
are not even being seen right now.
-ECONOMIC IMPACT I - THE EROSION OF QUOTES/RATES: There are really three
major impacts to actors during this economic crunch. First, we are seeing
the erosion of quotes. Due to the availability of so many talented actors,
CD's and Producers are in the driver's seat in negotiations. When they say,
"well we got someone else who will do it for less", they ain't kidding. I
have spoken to a number of my peers who have confirmed this erosion of pay
for their actors. In short, right now, quotes are eroding and for many, the
minimum has become the maximum pay.
-ECONOMIC IMPACT II - THE CONCLUSION OF SAG STALEMATE: Many are hoping that
with the end
of this stalemate, Hollywood will get back to normal. I have to say, that I
am not one who necessarily believes this. First off, due to the economic
conditions, most studios have lost their millions of dollars from hedge
funds; and European, Asian and Middle Eastern money has dried up. Even
Stephen Spielberg has had to beg, borrow and steal to get his company
financed .... And it wasn't anywhere near what he originally asked for. I
believe that, even after the SAG stalemate is over, there is probably not
enough money for 50 Studio Feature Films to be done right out of the gate.
BOTTOM LINE: While this will help us move towards normalcy, it will not be
the cash cow some people think it will be. One side note, is that I expect
that more formulaic projects will be down out the gate as Studios will be
less likely to take significant risks since most of these projects will be
financed by both the studio and their investors. In short, you will see more
Iron Mans, Animation, and SAWs... they are money in the bank when you factor in
ratios, etc.
-ECONOMIC IMPACT III - OVERALL STATEMENT OF ENVIRONMENT: It is important
that everyone follow the economic conditions closely. I know it is easy to
be skeptical over the studios, networks, cablers, production houses, show
runners, etc, losing money, but it is a cold-hard fact right now. These
entities are truly in a difficult spot. If you have read much lately, there
have been dramatic cut backs at every studio and network, from firings to
asking show runners to cut between 2-7% of their budgets (not to mention the
25+% cutback shows like the Sarah Silverman were asked to swallow recently).
Furthermore, these networks and studios are largely owned by conglomerates
who have lost in the billions over the last 6 months. When I attended NATPE
in January, all the talk was how to get 'thinner.' Everything is getting
tight. Budgets, Marketing, Staffing, etc., and this will undoubtedly impact
the actor. Also, the foreign sales market (where much of the TV and Film
money is made, is being hit hard by the erosion of the US Dollar. So these
entities are not able to recoup the costs they were in better days by the
one-time explosion of the foreign markets. BOTTOM LINE: The economic
conditions are forcing the industry to be as 'thin' as possible.
-COMMERCIALS - INDUSTRY AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS: One analyst said last year,
that 2008 was the worst commercial market since maybe 1974. I would not
argue with this. Think about it: three of the top products/services for ad
agencies are banks, cars and other financial services - all of which were
struck down in 2008/early 2009 by this recession. This was confirmed when
news struck that even the Super Bowl did not sell out advertising this year.
The good news is that the advertising industry tends to be one of the first
ones to be negatively impacted by a recession, but one of the first to grow
as the recession moves to an end as advertisers of products want to start
accumulating market share before the turn of the economy. Another impact
relates to the overall conditions of the TV/FILM/PILOT situation. Many
strong actors have made enough money on TV/FILM, etc so that they have not
had to do commercials in years. Due to the last few years and the lack of
work, many top actors are now back in the commercial market; thus again,
causing a logjam in casting. BOTTOMLINE: The economic slowdown has caused a
dramatic decrease in ad sales and the lack of work has caused more actors to
re-enter the commercial market.
THE GOOD NEWS!!
Okay, so that is where we are today. You know me, I try to always call it
straight as I see it. So, I am not going to sugar-coat this either. I
anticipate that 2009 will be a tough year overall for actors (and agencies).
First off, the economy will not likely get straightened out until at least
the 3rd to 4th quarter of this year and so all the factors above will remain
in place through most, if not all, of 2009. Secondly, until the labor
situation gets straightened out, we will not be seeing dramatic amount of
film production, and this seems to be dragging along as well (as we enter
the 8th month of the stalemate - it was announced today that SAG is thinking
now about taking AMPTP to court for anti-trust violations). But again, even
if it was finalized, there is not enough investor money to see the film
production level normalize and increase for most, if not all, of 2009. Also,
since movies cost around $40 for two (tickets, popcorn, etc) - this is not a
recession proof field anymore. During our last significant recession, there
were few choices for guilty pleasures to get away from the stress of our
times - so many people flocked to the theatres. NOT SO THESE DAYS, one can
go to the web, TV, cable (not around in 1974, 1982, 1988 much), Video Games,
Netflix, RedBox (movie for a $1). So studios are probably not in any big
rush to make films - as people cannot afford this once cheap diversion -
better to divert for a few bucks to all the many other sources of guilty
pleasures. OKAY, so that didn't sound like good news...
-The good news is that there are some paradigm shifts occurring that make
2010 -2012 look like it might be one of the most prolific times in Hollywood
history. Due to technological developments, there are more platforms being
developed than ever. The internet is driving millions of new viewers each
year. Zillion is going to transform the way we view advertising. For those
who don't know, it has recently been unveiled by the maker of Real Player
and the 'mouse.' It is a system that makes you watch ads before downloading
movies (they already have 14,000 Titles ready for download), TV, other forms
of entertainment to your TV Screen. However, the consumer can choose the
products they want to see (let's say you go retail clothing and watch a
Macy's ad and love the jacket; you can immediately click on the ad/jacket
and go directly to their website where you can buy it). Also, you earn
points by watching the commercials that you can use towards purchases.
Furthermore, SONY and others are now selling TVs that wirelessly connect to
your computer, so you can download TV/FILMS at anytime from your computer
(websites like Hula, Netflix, etc) directly to your TV. In short, technology
is making more platforms which will
require more content than ever. Also, Cablers are all embracing doing
scripted shows, some have up to 5 shows this year... again, more content is
needed and thus MORE ACTORS!
-BOTTOM LINE: More platforms = more content = more actors! So as long as
SAG/AFTRA can protect your rates and jurisdictional issues, there will be
more good compensated work than ever in Hollywood by 2010-2012.
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